For all the discussion over the on-going mortgage meltdown, here’s something that’s gone virtually unnoticed: A family earning the median income can’t afford the median-priced home. It’s a structural problem rooted deep in the economy, and it can’t be fixed by tinkering with lending rules.
Here’s the math: In 2006, the median home price was $227,100, and the median income was $48,201. The family with the median income seeking to acquire the median home would face a mortgage payment of $1,241 per month (or $14,892 per year) based on a 10 percent down payment at 6 percent interest. The mortgage payment alone, which doesn’t include property taxes, maintenance, homeowner’s insurance and private mortgage insurance, would consume 30.8 percent of the median family income. That explains the proliferation of alternative financing schemes — adjustable rate loans, interest-only payments, etc. — that looked plausible when land values were rising but look horrible now that the bubble has burst.
It doesn’t take a foreclosure for families to feel the mortgage pinch. Gigantic mortgages crowd out other priorities, such as retirement savings. More than half of 401(k) accounts have balances of less than $20,000, which means most families have the bulk of their savings stored in the equity of their homes.
The real problem isn’t wild swings in land values or dubious mortgage products, it’s the growing income disparity of wealth and income between the very rich and everyone else — especially the growing gap between the top 1 percent and everyone else. Since 1979, the average after-tax income of the top 1 percent of the population more than tripled, rising from $326,000 to over $1.07 million, for an increase of 228 percent. Meanwhile, the average after-tax income of the middle fifth of the population rose only 21 percent, and it rose just 6 percent for the poorest fifth. These numbers have a direct impact on who can afford homes and who can’t.
Income inequality isn’t the only problem. While incomes have stagnated, the expectations of average homeowners haven’t. Homes, until very recently, have gotten bigger, and perfectly good homes sit on the market because they’re used instead of new. But until the trend of exploding income inequality is reversed, the family with the median income won’t be able to afford the median-priced home. That’s not a statement of class warfare. That’s a statement of fact.

