Advertisement In a reversal of their once fallen fortunes in the Assembly, from January to June Democratic candidates raised four dollars for every three raised by Republicans, an analysis shows. The figures were compiled from state election filings by the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a group that tracks campaign finance, at the request of the Wisconsin State Journal.
Control of the Assembly has an outsized importance this year because Democrats already control the state Senate and governor's mansion. Assuming Democrats can hold their lead in the Senate, outcomes on issues such as taxes, schools and health care rest on which party wins control of the Assembly in November.
"It certainly indicates a trend which I think has been apparent in past elections as well, particularly '06," UW-La Crosse political scientist Joe Heim said of the figures. "It appears that the smart money is moving more toward Democrats, or at least covering both bases."
Heim cautioned that money is far from the only factor deciding races. But it does matter, he said, because it can help candidates reach voters and because fundraising suggests which candidates are already judged to be the strongest by donors.
Three seats needed
Republicans control the Assembly 51 to 47, with one independent, meaning Democrats need to gain three seats to control the body. The GOP has held the 99-member chamber since 1995.
The Democracy Campaign's analysis found that in the first six months of 2008, Assembly Democratic candidates and the group's campaign committee raised a record $1.38 million, up 68 percent from the same period in the runup to the 2006 elections. Republicans and their committee raised $1.05 million, also a new record, up 33 percent from the same period in 2006.
Including Senate seats up for reelection, Democratic candidates for the Legislature raised $1.92 million in the first half of 2008, compared to $1.46 million for Republicans.
Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch, R-West Salem, questioned whether the analysis was valid. He noted that a major July 28 fundraiser and golf outing for his GOP caucus raised about $150,000 but wasn't included in the analysis because it fell after the June 30 state reporting deadline. That fundraiser also fell after the reporting deadline in the 2006 election.
Huebsch said Republican candidates were raising more money than ever but other factors such as knocking on doors and speaking with voters still mattered more in Assembly races.
"It still comes down to what kind of candidates you have and how hard they're working," he said.
Rep. Jon Richards, D-Milwaukee, the assistant minority leader in the Assembly, said the money edge could help Democrats make more Assembly races competitive.
"The Assembly is definitely in play, and I think everyone understands that," Richards said. "I'm excited to see so many of our candidates with strong war-chests who will be able to tell their story no matter what anybody else does."
High-stakes election
Both lawmakers and Heim said the record fundraising in the Assembly reflected the enormous stakes of control of that house, where GOP lawmakers have been able to block Democratic initiatives such as universal health care and a tax on hospitals to fund state health programs for the poor.
"If the Democrats take the Assembly, they'll be able to get a lot of their (priorities) through that they haven't in the past," Heim said.
Jim Smith, director of the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee, said the Democrats' efforts were helped by fielding their largest number of Assembly candidates in 24 years and by holding 47 seats in the Assembly, up from 39 seats before the 2006 elections.
Smith said the January to June donation totals were also helped by holding the Democrats' major golfing fundraiser in June this year instead of in October, as they did in 2006. This year the outing raised $50,000 to $75,000, he said.
Heim said spending on political ads by individual candidates could be swamped by heavy spending on ads this fall by presidential candidates as well as by special interests such as business lobby Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce and teachers union Wisconsin Education Association Council.
Huebsch agreed and said higher expected voter turnout also poses a challenge of reaching out to more people.
"It changes your strategy and makes you realize you have to spend wisely and more strategically," he said.
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